Tung Nguyen

Optimizing black-box functions is a fundamental problem in science and engineering. To solve this problem, many approaches learn a surrogate function that estimates the underlying objective from limited historical evaluations. Large Language Models (LLMs), with their strong pattern-matching capabilities via pretraining on vast amounts of data, stand out as a potential candidate for surrogate modeling. However, directly prompting a pretrained language model to produce predictions is not feasible in many scientific domains due to the scarcity of domain-specific data in the pretraining corpora and the challenges of articulating complex problems in natural language. In this work, we introduce LICO, a general-purpose model that extends arbitrary base LLMs for black-box optimization, with a particular application to the molecular domain. To achieve this, we equip the language model with a separate embedding layer and prediction layer, and train the model to perform in-context predictions on a diverse set of functions defined over the domain. Once trained, LICO can generalize to unseen molecule properties simply via in-context prompting. LICO achieves state-of-the-art performance on PMO, a challenging molecular optimization benchmark comprising over 20 objective functions.

In-context learning is an emergent paradigm in large language models (LLMs) that enables them to generalize to new tasks and domains by simply prompting these models with a few exemplars without explicit parameter updates. Many attempts have been made to understand in-context learning in LLMs as a function of model scale, pretraining data, and other factors. In this work, we propose a new mechanism to probe and understand in-context learning from the lens of decision boundaries for in-context binary classification. Decision boundaries are straightforward to visualize and provide important information about the qualitative behavior of the inductive biases of standard classifiers. To our surprise, we find that the decision boundaries learned by current LLMs in simple binary classification tasks are often irregularly non-smooth, regardless of task linearity. This paper investigates the factors influencing these decision boundaries and explores methods to enhance their generalizability. We assess various approaches, including training-free and fine-tuning methods for LLMs, the impact of model architecture, and the effectiveness of active prompting techniques for smoothing decision boundaries in a data-efficient manner. Our findings provide a deeper understanding of in-context learning dynamics and offer practical improvements for enhancing robustness and generalizability of in-context learning.

Weather forecasting is a fundamental problem for anticipating and mitigating the impacts of climate change. Recently, data-driven approaches for weather forecasting based on deep learning have shown great promise, achieving accuracies that are competitive with operational systems. However, those methods often employ complex, customized architectures without sufficient ablation analysis, making it difficult to understand what truly contributes to their success. Here we introduce Stormer, a simple transformer model that achieves state-of-the art performance on weather forecasting with minimal changes to the standard transformer backbone. We identify the key components of Stormer through careful empirical analyses, including weather-specific embedding, randomized dynamics forecast, and pressure-weighted loss. At the core of Stormer is a randomized forecasting objective that trains the model to forecast the weather dynamics over varying time intervals. During inference, this allows us to produce multiple forecasts for a target lead time and combine them to obtain better forecast accuracy. On WeatherBench 2, Stormer performs competitively at short to medium-range forecasts and outperforms current methods beyond 7 days, while requiring orders-of-magnitude less training data and compute. Additionally, we demonstrate Stormer’s favorable scaling properties, showing consistent improvements in forecast accuracy with increases in model size and training tokens. Code and checkpoints are available at https://github.com/tung-nd/stormer.

Experimental design is a fundamental problem in many science and engineering fields. In this problem, sample efficiency is crucial due to the time, money, and safety costs of real-world design evaluations. Existing approaches either rely on active data collection or access to large, labeled datasets of past experiments, making them impractical in many real-world scenarios. In this work, we address the more challenging yet realistic setting of few-shot experimental design, where only a few labeled data points of input designs and their corresponding values are available. We approach this problem as a conditional generation task, where a model conditions on a few labeled examples and the desired output to generate an optimal input design. To this end, we introduce Experiment Pretrained Transformers (ExPT), a foundation model for few-shot experimental design that employs a novel combination of synthetic pretraining with in-context learning. In ExPT, we only assume knowledge of a finite collection of unlabelled data points from the input domain and pretrain a transformer neural network to optimize diverse synthetic functions defined over this domain. Unsupervised pretraining allows ExPT to adapt to any design task at test time in an in-context fashion by conditioning on a few labeled data points from the target task and generating the candidate optima. We evaluate ExPT on few-shot experimental design in challenging domains and demonstrate its superior generality and performance compared to existing methods. The source code is available at https://github.com/tung-nd/ExPT.

Most state-of-the-art approaches for weather and climate modeling are based on physics-informed numerical models of the atmosphere. These approaches aim to model the non-linear dynamics and complex interactions between multiple variables, which are challenging to approximate. Additionally, many such numerical models are computationally intensive, especially when modeling the atmospheric phenomenon at a fine-grained spatial and temporal resolution. Recent data-driven approaches based on machine learning instead aim to directly solve a downstream forecasting or projection task by learning a data-driven functional mapping using deep neural networks. However, these networks are trained using curated and homogeneous climate datasets for specific spatiotemporal tasks, and thus lack the generality of numerical models. We develop and demonstrate ClimaX, a flexible and generalizable deep learning model for weather and climate science that can be trained using heterogeneous datasets spanning different variables, spatio-temporal coverage, and physical groundings. ClimaX extends the Transformer architecture with novel encoding and aggregation blocks that allow effective use of available compute while maintaining general utility. ClimaX is pre-trained with a self-supervised learning objective on climate datasets derived from CMIP6. The pre-trained ClimaX can then be fine-tuned to address a breadth of climate and weather tasks, including those that involve atmospheric variables and spatio-temporal scales unseen during pretraining. Compared to existing data-driven baselines, we show that this generality in ClimaX results in superior performance on benchmarks for weather forecasting and climate projections, even when pretrained at lower resolutions and compute budgets. The source code is available at https://github.com/microsoft/ClimaX.

Neural Processes (NPs) are a popular class of approaches for meta-learning. Similar to Gaussian Processes (GPs), NPs define distributions over functions and can estimate uncertainty in their predictions. However, unlike GPs, NPs and their variants suffer from underfitting and often have intractable likelihoods, which limit their applications in sequential decision making. We propose Transformer Neural Processes (TNPs), a new member of the NP family that casts uncertainty-aware meta learning as a sequence modeling problem. We learn TNPs via an autoregressive likelihood-based objective and instantiate it with a novel transformer-based architecture. The model architecture respects the inductive biases inherent to the problem structure, such as invariance to the observed data points and equivariance to the unobserved points. We further investigate knobs within the TNP framework that tradeoff expressivity of the decoding distribution with extra computation. Empirically, we show that TNPs achieve state-of-the-art performance on various benchmark problems, outperforming all previous NP variants on meta regression, image completion, contextual multi-armed bandits, and Bayesian optimization.

Bayesian Optimization is ubiquitous in the field of experimental design and blackbox optimization for improving search efficiency, but has been traditionally restricted to regression models which are only applicable to fixed search spaces and tabular input features. We propose Embed-then-Regress, a paradigm for applying in-context regression over string inputs, through the use of string embedding capabilities of pretrained language models. By expressing all inputs as strings, we are able to perform general-purpose regression for Bayesian Optimization over various domains including synthetic, combinatorial, and hyperparameter optimization, obtaining comparable results to state-of-the-art Gaussian Process-based algorithms. Code can be found at https://github.com/google-research/optformer/tree/main/optformer/embed_then_regress.